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Sunday, February 15, 2026

The Small-Group, Niche, Sunrise Sector Framework: A Proven Method to Identify Multibagger Stocks Early

Introduction

Multibagger stocks are companies that generate returns of 5x, 10x, or even 100x over time. Contrary to popular belief, these opportunities rarely exist in large, well-known companies. Instead, they emerge quietly in small companies operating in niche sectors, often supported by strong industrial groups or positioned in sectors undergoing structural growth.

This article presents a structured framework for identifying such opportunities early, before institutional investors discover them.


Core Philosophy

Multibaggers typically share three core characteristics:

  1. They are small companies with large growth runways.

  2. They operate in sectors with strong long-term demand.

  3. They possess structural advantages such as group backing, niche positioning, or operating leverage.

Based on this, the framework consists of three primary categories.


Category 1: Small companies from large industrial groups 

Why this produces multibaggers:

Large groups incubate small subsidiaries → later scale massively.

Examples:

  • Bajaj Finance → 1000x

  • Honeywell Automation → 200x

  • Cummins India → 100x

  • Page Industries → 100x

Reasons:

  • Parent provides customers

  • Parent provides capital

  • Parent provides credibility

  • Low bankruptcy risk


Category 2: Sunrise sectors temporarily down 

These sectors have long-term growth but short-term slowdown.

Examples:

  • Specialty chemicals (China slowdown)

  • Industrial capex

  • Power transmission

  • Railways

  • Defence

Stocks fall temporarily → then become multibaggers.

Examples:

  • Deepak Nitrite → 10x

  • HEG → 20x

  • Dixon Technologies → 50x


Category 3: Niche companies with low competition 

These companies have:

  • Few competitors

  • Specialized products

  • Pricing power

Examples:

  • Anup Engineering

  • Astra Microwave

  • Garware Technical Fibres


Based on the framework detailed analysis of future multibagger


1. Bajaj Indef

Sector: Industrial equipment
Group: Bajaj Group

CMP: ₹260 (approx)
Market cap: ₹750 Cr

Why it fits framework:

✔ Part of Bajaj Group
✔ Niche cranes and material handling
✔ Industrial capex beneficiary

2. Bajel Projects

Sector: Power transmission EPC
Group: Bajaj Group

CMP: ₹160
Market cap: ₹1,900 Cr (India Infoline)

Why it fits perfectly:

✔ Demerged from Bajaj Electricals (Groww)
✔ ₹8000 Cr order book
✔ Power transmission boom

India needs massive power infra.

3. ASAL (Automotive Stampings and Assemblies)

Sector: Auto components
Group: Tata Group supplier

CMP: ₹480
Market cap: ₹800 Cr

Why it fits:

✔ Supplier to Tata Motors
✔ EV growth beneficiary

4. Patels Airtemp

Sector: Heat exchangers

CMP: ₹230
Market cap: ₹126 Cr (Groww)

Why it fits perfectly:

✔ Very small company and reasonable valuaation and chance of rerating similar to anup engineering/Kilburn once it moves to specialization
✔ Specialized heat exchangers 

✔ ₹312 Cr order book (Groww)

Extremely high operating leverage.

5. Kaya Ltd

Sector: Skincare

CMP: ₹330
Market cap: ₹430 Cr

Why it fits:

✔ Originally part of Marico
✔ Turnaround candidate

6. Atul Auto

Sector: Auto OEM

CMP: ₹500
Market cap: ₹1100 Cr

Why it fits:

✔ Niche 3-wheeler manufacturer
✔ EV transition potential

7. Jost Engineering

Sector: Material Handling

CMP: ₹270
Market cap: ₹350 Cr

Why it fits:

✔ Niche industrial equipment
✔ Beneficiary of capex cycle

8. Elgi Rubber

Sector: Tyre retreading

CMP: ₹40
Market cap: ₹250Cr

Why it fits:

✔ Niche tyre retreading
✔ Global presence


9. Amal Ltd

Sector: Specialty chemicals
Group: Atul Ltd

CMP: ₹550
Market cap: ₹750 Cr

Why it fits perfectly:

✔ Part of Atul Group
✔ Specialty chemicals
✔ China+1 beneficiary


CompanySectorGroup LinkCMP (₹)Market Cap (₹ Cr)Key Competitors (Similar Framework)
Bajaj IndefIndustrial Equipment (Cranes, Hoists)Bajaj Group260700Hercules Hoists, TRF Ltd (Tata Group), McNally Bharat, Elecon Engineering
Bajel ProjectsPower Transmission EPCBajaj Group1601,900Skipper Ltd, Techno Electric, Transrail Lighting, KEC International
ASALAuto Components (Stampings)Tata ecosystem supplier480800JBM Auto, Talbros Automotive, PPAP Automotive, Sanmar Engineering
Patels AirtempHeat ExchangersIndependent niche230126Anup Engineering, ISGEC Heavy Engineering, HLE Glascoat, Kilburn Engineering
Kaya LtdHealthcare ClinicsEx-Marico320450Yatharth Hospital, Vijaya Diagnostic, Rainbow Children’s Hospital
Atul AutoAuto OEM (3-wheelers)Independent5001100Force Motors, SML Isuzu, EV niche OEMs like Olectra Greentech
Jost EngineeringHeat Transfer EquipmentIndependent270350Patels Airtemp, Kilburn Engineering, ISGEC Heavy Engineering, United Heat Transfer
Elgi RubberTyre Retreading EquipmentElgi Group40250TVS Srichakra, CEAT (retread segment), Falcon Tyres, Indag Rubber


Amal LtdSpecialty ChemicalsAtul Ltd / Lalbhai Group550667Amal’s parent Atul Ltd, Bodal Chemicals, Camlin Fine Sciences, Vinati Organics




Thursday, February 2, 2017

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

THE DEADLY ART OF STOCK MANIPULATION

RULE NUMBER ONE:
ALL SHARP PRICE MOVEMENTS -- WHETHER UP OR DOWN --ARE THE RESULT OF ONE OR MORE (USUALLY A GROUP OF) PROFESSIONALS MANIPULATING THE SHARE PRICE.

RULE NUMBER TWO:
IF THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WANTS TO DISTRIBUTE (DUMP)HIS SHARES, HE WILL START A GOOD NEWS PROMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN.

RULE NUMBER THREE:
AS SOON AS THE MARKET MANIPULATOR HAS COMPLETED HIS DISTRIBUTION (DUMPING) OF SHARES, HE WILL START A BAD NEWS OR NO NEWS CAMPAIGN.

RULE NUMBER FOUR:
ANY STOCK THAT TRADES HUGE VOLUME AT HIGHER PRICES SIGNALS THE DISTRIBUTION PHASE.

RULE NUMBER FIVE:
THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL ALWAYS TRY TO GET YOU TO BUY AT THE HIGHEST, AND SELL AT THE LOWEST PRICE POSSIBLE.


RULE NUMBER SIX:
IF THIS IS A REAL DEAL, THEN YOU ARE LIKELY TO BE THE LAST PERSON TO BE NOTIFIED OR WILL BE DRIVEN OUT AT THE LOWER PRICES.

RULE NUMBER SEVEN:
CONVERSELY, YOU WILL OFTEN BE THE LAST TO KNOW WHEN THIS DEAL SHOWS SIGNS OF FAILURE.

RULE NUMBER EIGHT:
THE MARKET MANIPULATOR WILL COMPEL YOU INTO THE STOCK SO THAT YOU DRIVE UP ITS PRICE SHARES.

RULE NUMBER NINE:
THE MARKET MANIPULATOR IS WELL AWARE OF THE MOTIONS YOU ARE EXPERIENCING DURING A RUN UP AND A COLLAPSE AND WILL PLAY YOUR EMOTIONS LIKE A PIANO.

FINAL RULE:
A NEW BATCH OF SUCKERS ARE BORN WITH EVERY NEW PLAY.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Who Was Mr. Harshad Mehta: The Big Bull?

Do we care to know the truth of anything happening around us? did we care to know the biggest scam of Indian stock exchange? Do we care to know about Mr Harshad Mehta? Why he is known as big bull? What price he paid for being big bull?What he did? How he did? And why he did it? How it happened???

Caution: stock market investment is subject to market risk. Please read the offer document carefully before investment.

The above line comes in front of our life many times during our life time. But do we really care for it? Do we care to know the truth of anything happening around us? did we care to know the biggest scam of Indian stock exchange? Do we care to know about Mr Harshad Mehta? Why he is known as big bull? What price he paid for being big bull?What he did? How he did? And why he did it? How it happened???

If u have desire to know about some truth about The Biggest Indian Stock Exchange Scam , Hold your questions… and read the following article :
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“ Its all about Being Big Bull”

Fundamental of Big Bulls:

Name: Mr Harshad Shantilal Mehta

Family: Gujarati Jain family

Father : Mr Shantilal Mehta , a small businessman

Harshad Mehta‘s childhood was spent in Mumbai … Later, the family moved to Raipur , Madhya Pradesh. Somehow Harshad Mehta did not find his future in Raipur and could not stay away from Mumbai’s shiny life style.

After coming to Mumbai Harshad Mehta joined his 1st job as dispatch clerk in the New India Assurance Company. But his 1st love is always Stock market.

Harshad Mehta’s first love was stock exchange. During his work at new india insurance he has started investing in stock market with his brother Ashwin Mehta. And after sometimes he has managed to get BSE broker’s card. Who knows at that time that it was starting of great Indian scam!!

Growth period of Big Bull:

After investing in stock exchange Harshad Mehta found some wrong patter on trades in stock exchange. He found that companies are not rising and falling as oer their fundamentals, and he started manipulating one stock named ACC. It was rising , rising and rising only. But Harshad Mehta had reason for all the questions for its rising. Its “Replacement Price Theory”. He was successful in explaining this theory to Indian public.

But the fact had another side too. Mr Mehta started buying this ACC at mid 1990 and then he made it public. It was Harshad Mehta’s trademarked style. He used to study fundamentals, he used to buy in big quantity and then he used to make is public. And demand of that stock used to rise like anything after recommendation of this Big Bull !!

Boom Period of Big Bull’s life:

Year 1991. Mr Harshad Mehta is noow darling of Indian media. He was dream seller. He was not only Harshad Mehta now.. but he was The Harshad Mehta. Boss of “Growmore Research and Asset Management “. People know this personality as “ The Big Bull” of Indian stock exchange. Harshad Mehta thought different then others. The basic concept behind his view was very optimistic and somehow it was good for Indian money market too. He used to explain people that if fundamental of some company is good it should go up and should always goes up. But excess of anything is evil. The dream of great Indian story was becoming greed generator for Indian public and for Mr Harshad Mehta too. At his peak, he lived almost like a celebrity in a 15,000 sq ft house, which had a swimming pool ,beautiful golf patch. He also had a crush for flashy luxurious cars and no wonder he used to have some of the best car of 1990’s in his huge parking.

Recession Period in Big Bull’s life:

His flashy life and charismatic personality was a problem for many Indian and international personalities. In 1992, 1st article came out against this dream merchant and the story was about 600+ Crores rupees scam !! it was written in article that Harshad Mehta had swiped 600 Crores. rupees from SBI. No one had clue at that time that it was starting of the most dramatic scam of Indian stock exchange. But fact was unknown till now . the amount is much more than what was said in that news article.

As per that article Mr Harshad Mehta used “Ready Forward Deal” for this scam. As per this deal he used to take some short term loan from banks and used this money in stock exchange to rise the price is the security. Pure manipulation. As per Indian law it was not allowed to give such RF loan to any individual person by bank. So it was clear that more than one banks were involved in this scam. With this money mr Harshad Mehta used to make waves in Indian stock exchange. He was using this banks illegally to manipulate the stock exchange mechanism.

He used the money he borrowed from lending bank on behalf of borrowing bank. And he invested that money in stock market. in this process the borrowing and lending banks knows only broker and may not know the name of the other party. And Harshad Mehta used this fact very well for his own personal benefit.

Another “technique” of rising money in stock exchange is “Bank Receipt”(BR). In BR one bank sells its government securities to another bank after particular time in future, and it gets payment from the lending bank. During that time if the borrower bank is returning money back they can get their government security back. And in this scam Mr Harshad Mehta played very crucial role along qith two small banks Bank of Karad and Metropolitan Co-op. Bank.. He used to get money from borrowing bank and it was used in stock market. at time of settlement he sell its security in which he earned lots of profit and he return the money back to the bank. Master mind at its best.(or worst?). But the game was not possible in case if share prises going down. And this is the reason behind Harshad Mehta’s dream for constant and one side growth.

Depression of Big Bull’s life:

Mr Harshad Mehta had one habit of showing off. Larger than life kind of personality can make the worst enemies for you. When he came to know this truth it was too late. When he got some finest luxurious car of the world and he was giving some picture pose of him feeding bears in zoo, some big names like Anand Rathi and Krishnakant Damani were hurt badly it was not a good news for the big bull. Whole bear cartel is against Harshad Mehta now. Everyone knew that Harshad Mehta is getting money from somewhere. but from where? The bear cartel has exposed the truth behind the constant rise of this big bull. They have used almost all the resources they have. It was surprising to point out here that even this bear cartel was using same “technique” as Harshad Mehta used. But the difference was , public appearance. Bears cartel used the money from overseas banks where as Harshad Mehta used Indian banks for his growth. And this act was “crime” as per Indian law books.

And on one not so fine day it was headline of Indian news paper regarding 4000 crore rupees scam in Indian stock market. Now Harshad Mehta was in trouble. As the scam was exposed the banks receipts (BR) value became almost zero. And it was enough reason for crash of some financial institutes which would lead Indian financial crises. Bear cartel was behind Harshad Mehta now. They filed as many cases as hey can against Harshad Mehta . They have used all their sources and made sure that Harshad Mehta would not get any bail.

Indian Stock Market crashed like anything. It was one of the worst time Indian market have seen till day. Indian public faced tough times. Many suicidal notes were found near dead bodies of Indian stock traders. The big bull, The dream merchant, The Harshad Mehta is now The most hated person!! 4000 crore scam ,many financial firms were involved, many political parties were involved, many big names involved in the same case, but surprisingly only one man was trapped. Harshad Mehta.

End of The Big Bull:

Late 2001, place : Thane jail. The jail superintendent came to know about end of the bull era with news of Harshad Mehta’s death. Reason was heart attack. But it was shocking to know that before he died, he was proved innocent in all other cases against him, and found guilty in only one case..!!! That is how it happened. The chair person of Growmore Research and Asset Management died. And one Bull Run came to end.

Moral of the Article :

Caution: stock market investment is subject to market risk. Please read the offer document carefully before investing.

“Magic Figures”: Index Calculator

We have seen many enthusiastic people on television channels who jump here and there when sensex crosses 10,000 or 20,000 mark, or nifty cross some magic figures like 5555 or 4994!! (many people can feel the thrill even while reading these numbers!! Reason: They are magic figures!) Such high level of enthusiasm related with those Magic Figures we can see on streets also, especially when name of the street is called “Dalal Street”! Have you ever wondered how those numbers are calculated? How do we calculate indexes like sensex and nifty? That is the topic of this article. Unique, informative and fresh! This article will explain the calculation of index.

Stock market!! This word is one of the most thrilling words who know it. But stock market is just an idea. To measure stock exchange, we have some indicators like, sensex and nifty. We have seen many enthusiastic people on television channels who jump here and there when sensex crosses 10,000 or 20,000 mark, or nifty cross some magic figures like 5555 or 4994!! (many people can feel the thrill even while reading these numbers!! Reason: They are magic figures!) Such high level of enthusiasm related with those Magic Figures we can see on streets also, especially when name of the street is called “Dalal Street”!

Have you ever wondered how those numbers are calculated? How do we calculate indexes like sensex and nifty? That is the topic of this article. Unique, informative and fresh! This article will explain the calculation of index.
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SENSEX
Sensex is the most common word in Indian stock exchange. Very few traders know that sensex stands for “sensitive index”. (don’t worry if you don’t know about it. It will not affect your portfolio anyhow. ) It represents Bombay stock exchange stocks. sensex is calculated using 30 market leader companies in Bombay stock exchange. Weight of 30 companies may differ. Base value for sensex is 100. And base year is 1978-1979. Since 1986 sensex calculation is in practice. Earlier it was calculated using total market capitalisation method. But since 2003 it is calculated using free float market capitalisation method. Sensex is calculated for every 15 seconds.

NIFTY
Nifty is the most frequently used word in Indian stock exchange. (this statement is not based on any research!! Sometimes common sense if enough, not research is needed.) Nifty represents 50 large companies from 24 different sectors of National Stock Exchange. These 50 companies represent almost 50% of total volume of national stock exchange. base value for index is 1000 for nifty. Base year is 1995. Nifty is calculated for every 15 seconds.

There are some criteria for stocks to be included in sensex or nifty.

1. Company should have one year history on bse as a listed company.
2. Company’s market capital should be among the top 100 market capital number of BSE listed companies. And each company should more than 0.5% of total market capitalisation of sensex.
3. Company should be market leader in the particular sector.
4. Company should have well past record.
5. Company should be traded in each and every day of last one year. (Of course, holidays are not included in “each and every day”.)

OK. After knowing the criteria for eligibility, now question should be there in your mind what is market capitalisation? Well, before calculating nifty and sensex, one should know some important terms used in the formula. (Well, do not expect the formula so easily.)

Two important factors for the calculation are market capitalisation & free float market capitalisation.

* Market Capitalisation:



In simple word, market capitalisation is total worth of particular company. It represents issued shares of the company.

Market capitalization= No of shares outstanding x market price of share

* Free Float Market Capitalization:



In simple words, free float market capitalization is shares available to trade by anyone. Free float market capitalisation is the total worth of all shares of a company which are available for trading in the open market. These shares are those shares which are not held by government or promoter of the company, held through FDI, held by private corporate bodies, held by employee welfare trust or held by any private corporate / individual bodies.

Free float market capitalization =

No. of outstanding share x market price of share



Free float factor =

No of shares available for trading in the open market /Total No of outstanding shares of the company.

For example: if one company named ABC has 1000 shares, and government is holding 300 shares, promoter holding is 500 shares, and 200 shares are available in market. And price of 1 share is 10 Rs.

In this case,

Market capitalisation of the company is 1000 X 10 = 10,000

Free float market capitalisation of company is 200 X 10= 2,000

Calculation of SENSEX and NIFTY

Sensex is calculated using free float market capitalization of 30 major BSE listed companies and by using base value 100 (base year: 1978-79). Nifty is calculated using free float market capitalisation of 50 companies of NSE using based value 1000 (base year: 1995).

Let’s understand the same with help of example: suppose BSE index (SENSEX) consist of only two stocks such as ‘ABC’ and ‘XYZ’

Company ‘ABC’:

1000 outstanding shares

500 are available for trading in open market.

Market price of share is Rs.100.

Company ‘XYZ’:

2000 outstanding shares

1000 available for trading in open market shares

Market price of share is Rs.50.

Calculation of Market Capitalization :

ABC: 1000 x 100 = 1,00,000

XYZ: 2000 x 50 = 1,00,000

Now ,Sum of market cap of companies,

Total market capital = ABC+XYZ = 100,000+100,000 = 200,000

Calculation of Free Float market capitalization:

ABC: 500 x 100 = 50,000

XYZ: 1000 x 50 = 50,000

Now, Sum of free float market cap of companies,

Total free float capitalisation = A+B = 50000+50000 = 100000

Formula for Sensex calculation:

SENSEX = (sum of free float market cap of 30 major companies of BSE) X
Index value in 1978-79 / Market cap value in 1978-79.

Assume market cap during 1978-79 is 2000. Now, as per formula:

100000 X 100 / 2000 = 5000

Value of sensex is 5000.

Formula for Nifty calculation:

NIFTY = (Sum of free flow market cap of 50 major stocks of NSE) X
Index value in 1995 / market cap value in 1995

Assuming the market cap value during 1995 is 20,000

Now, put the market cap value of the A and B in formula

100000 x 1000 / 100000 = 1000

Value of nifty is 1000

I hope you like this article. That is how we calculate our index.

Stay with us for more article on stock exchange. If you like the article please do not forget to give your valuable comments below this article.

Playing with number is fun, and stock market is all about number. So let’s play…

with your permission .. i would like to say… Astalavista !!

History of The Indian Stock Exchange:

INDIAN STOCK EXCHANGE. A few men, started one association under a banyan tree for trading some commodity/security in 1875 !! Who knew at that time that it would grow and would become NSE/BSE? Interesting?
Read some finest events and milestones of Indian Stock Exchange.

To study the history of the capital market in India we have to look back in eighteenth century when East India Company started security trading in India. Security trading in India was unorganised during that time. Until the end of nineteenth century, scene was same. Two chief trading centres were Calcutta and Bombay now known as Mumbai and Kolkata. (It has to be mentioned, if you do not want apologize later). Out of them Bombay was main trading port. During American civil war (1860), Bombay was at important centre where essential commodities were traded. Because of heavy supply those days prices of stocks enjoyed boom period. Probably, the first Indian stock exchange boom period. It lasted for almost 5 years. After those booming period Indian stock exchange faced the first bubble burst on July 1st 1965.
During that time trading in stock market was just a concept, a thought, an idea. It was limited to 12-15 brokers only. There market was situated under a banyan tree in front of the Town hall in Bombay. These brokers organised an association, of course informal in nature, in 1875. Name of the association was “Native Shares and Stock Broker Association”. Very few visionary could feel that it was starting of the great history of Indian stock exchange. After 5 decades of the incidence, the Bombay stock exchange was recognized in May 1927 under the Bombay Security contracts Control Act, 1925. But still the exchange was not well organised as British Government was not willing to see India as rising nation.
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After independence, 1st priority of Indian government was development of the agriculture sector and public sector undertakings. Public sector undertakings were healthier for sure but they were not listed in stock exchange. In first and second five year plan, capital market was not a goal for Indian government. Moreover, the controller of capital issues closely controlled many factors for new issues. It was one reason and big enough to de-motivate Indian corporate to stay away from the idea of going public.

In 1950s, some good companies listed in the exchange were brokers’ favourite. Some of them were Century Textile, Tata steel, Bombay dyeing, Kohinoor mills. They were favourite not because of any technical or fundamental reason. The brokers enjoyed trading in these scripts as it was operated by operators. Slowly the stock exchange was given one new name “Satta Bazaar”! But surprisingly, despite of speculation, defaults cases were very few. In 1956, the government passed the Securities Contract Act.

In 1960s, Indo China war happened. And it was starting of bearish phase in stock exchange. This bearish trend was aggravated by the ban in 1969 on forward trading and badla. Badla was technically contracts for clearing. Financial institutes helped to boost the sentiment by injecting liquidity in the market. In 1964, the first Indian mutual fund came in market, named the Unit Trust Of India.

In 1970s , badla trading was resumed again under another form of hand delivery contracts. But in 1974, 6th of July was the day when capital market got one bad news. Government introduced the Dividend Restriction Ordinance; this rule was restricting the payment of dividend by companies to 12 per cent of the face value or one-third of the profits of the companies that can be distributed. (Whichever was lower.)!! Stock market crashed again. Stocks went down by 20% and the market was closed for nearly a fortnight. The sentiment of stock market was same until the optimism came in market with when the MNCs were forced to dilute majority stocks in their company in favour of Indian public. Many MNCs left India. But 123 MNCs offered shares were lower than its intrinsic value. It was the first time Indian public had opportunity to invest in some of the finest MNCs. In 1977, Mr Dhirubhai Ambani knocked the door of Indian stock exchange and it was probably the turning point not only for Indian stock exchange but for Indian economy.

In 1980s, Indian stock exchange witnessed blasting growth period. Indian public discovered lucrative opportunities in stock exchange. It was the time when people who did not even now what is stock exchange, investing in the same. The growth doubled with the government liberalization process in mid 1980s. It was the time when convertible debentures and public sector bonds were popular in market. New stock market entries like Reliance and LNT re-defined Indian stock market scenario. Such factors enlarged volume in stock exchange. 1980s can be characterized by huge increase in the number of stock market, listed companies and market capitalisation.

The 1990s can be described as the most important decade in the history of Indian stock market. Everyone was talking about liberalisation and globalisation. The Capital Issue Act of 1947 was replaced in 1992. SEBI was emerged as a new regulator of the market. FII is coming to India and re-rating India as one of the most attractive market in world. Number of new stock exchanges was rising in county. Private sector mutual funds were welcome in market. Some very big scams of Indian scam history took place in 1990s. The impact of such incidence was very deep. Indian investors drove their money out of market for some years. Positive side , these scams opened Indian government eyes. New technology new systems were introduced in Indian stock exchange. The Bombay stock exchange had two new competitors in market. OTC was established in 1992 and NSE was established in 1994. The national security clearing corporation (NSCC) and National securities depository Limited (NSDL) were established in 1995 and 1996 respectively. In 1995—1996 Option trading service was started. Rolling settlement was introduced in India in early 1998. Number of participation in stock exchange was rising with new segments for trading, new products and new technology. 1990s is known as era of Indian IT companies too. Wipro, Infosys, Satyam were some of the favourite stocks. Telecom and Media sector also rising during the same time.

Indian market welcomed Y2K with scam of Ketan Parekh. After that scam Badla system was banned in Indian market and rolling settlement was introduced in all scripts. Future trading was started in June 2000. In February 2000, Internet trading was permitted, all these events changed picture of old stock market. In 2001, UTI suspension of sale and re-purchase of its famous scheme US-64. It created panic in market. One big incidence of VSNL disinvestment took place in February 2002. In 2003, the government took decision to privatize PSU banks and it was market buster again. In 2000s, FII money started coming in Indian market like never before. NSE volume crossed BSE volume during the same time. Global meltdown hit Indian market in late 2007 and throughout 2008. Big Satyam Scam was exposed in 2008 again and it hit investor’s spirit badly. Since 2nd quarter of 2009 we have been watching up move trend for market again, after positive election result in India. Investors are again coming in market.

It has been a long volatile journey for the Indian capital market. Now the capital market is organized, matured, fairly valued, nicely regulated and more global. The Indian market is one of the most attractive markets today which gives stable high rate of return compared to other countries. In terms of technology Indian equity market is one of the best in the world too. Computer and telecom sector advances and Internet is shattering geographic boundaries. Internet is giving wide range of investors and Internet is also used to provide better level of information. The best example, we can say because of Internet I am able to write this article and you are reading this article on this site.

If you like the article, do not forget to give your valuable comment for the same. Stay with us for more on Indian stock market.

Time to say “Astalavista” !!!

Sunday, March 22, 2009

How Share price goes up in stock markets

Once upon a time in a village a man appeared who announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs. 10. The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys went out in the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at 10 and as supply started to diminish and villagers started to stop their effort he announced that now he would buy at 20 rupees.This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to 25 and the supply of monkeys became so that it was an effort to even see a monkey let alone catch it.The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at 50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business his assistant would now buy on behalf of the man.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, "Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at 35 and when the man comes back you can sell it to him for 50".The villagers queued up with all their saving to buy the monkeys.Phir no woh aadmi mila na us ka assistant.........Sirf bandar hee bandar.........This is the story repeated in Stock Market as well.

Monday, October 20, 2008

How did Dhirubhai learn to think big?

What do you call a man who hates to lose? A winner? That is too easy, too glib, and buries the story. All Dhirajlal Hirachand Ambani ever wanted to be is the biggest there ever is, the best there ever was. He wanted a piece of the action — preferably all of it. If others wouldn’t let him in, he would create his own turf and own it all.

Ambani is actually a businessman, but his career is so extraordinary that he is more than just a businessman, more than even an industrialist.He is a folk hero to millions of Indians, even those who are not businessmen, or do not aspire to a business career.And that is why Dhirubhai Ambani is so special, just as Mahatma Gandhi was something more than a politician and Indira Gandhi was more than a prime minister.

These people are not born every day. I rank Dhirubhai along with the Gandhis, because all of them moved the entire country in a certain direction. Without the Mahatma, we would still be under the British. Without Indira, the country would have been torn apart into quasi independent fiefdoms, the kind we had before the Britishers arrived here. And without Dhirubhai, we would not have learnt how to think big, not in terms of a small factory here and there, but in terms of giant plants, as big as anywhere in the world and as modern as they come. Dhirubhai taught India to think big, because, as he used to say, ours is a big country and if we do not think big, we shall never be able to attain our potential.

It is not easy to think big in India. We are so worried about the next meal that there is no time for anything else. For the last thousand years we have not thought big at all, though the Marathas under Shivaji did try. We can think only of the next meal, the next pay cheque, the next job, the next election. We can never think of the day after tomorrow, let alone the year after tomorrow, or the generation after the next. We are so poor that everything tends to be short-term, small and trifling, and almost always temporary and short-lived.

How did Dhirubhai learn to think big? He was a son of a village teacher in a small place in Gujarat and was sent to Mumbai as a boy of fifteen or so, as there were no jobs for him in his village. He was then packed off to Aden, where he worked on as a petrol pump attendant. Later, he went on to East Africa where he also worked in an oil company, also as an assistant before he returned to India for good.

Hundreds of Indians must have done the same thing. But you don’t hear of anyone, except Ambani. I know at least two persons who also worked on petrol pumps and later became company executives. Ambani also could have become one.But he didn’t. When he returned to Bombay, he started his own yarn dealership, in a small 10 by 10 room in Mulji Jetha market, for which he paid an exorbitant rent of 150 rupees a month, just because it had a telephone.

As a yarn merchant, he used to go from one dealer to another and also to purchase agents of the big textile companies in Mumbai, most of whom have now shut up shop or gone bankrupt. Ambani still remembers them and calls them his sheths. But how is it that Dhirubhai went on to chemicals from textiles, and from there to petrochemicals and then to oil exploration?

Ambani was thinking big even when he was small. His company, Reliance Industries, went public in 1977, if I remember right, when the turnover was around Rs 100 crore, not a great deal of money even 25 years ago. This was about the time I met him for the first time. He was still a small man, though he was being watched carefully by people in Mumbai. But what I remember about him is that he was thinking not of his 100-crore business, not how to make it to 200 crore, but, believe it or not, how to take his company to the top and overtake Tata Steel, then the biggest company in the private sector, a position it had acquired after over sixty years in the business. He was not only thinking big, he had solid plans to go big and push ahead of Tata Steel. I still have a copy of a xeroxed table he had prepared with projections of likely sales of leading Tata companies, including Tata Steel and Tata Engineering, which were the leading companies then.He had projections for his own company, Reliance, and he had said that he would catch up with them in six or seven years time. The timing is not important. It is the thinking behind it that is. For Ambani, textiles was only a beginning of his dreams.He had worked out in his mindscape what he would do five, ten, fifteen years from now, and he had formed a complete strategy for doing what he wanted to do.

Dhirubhai was never a big talker. But after a good lunch of curried prawns and rice, and some icecream for dessert, he would relax in his office, and he would talk about this and that, until it was time for him to go back to work, or for me to leave. He was then still in textiles and did not have a single chemicals plant. I asked him how he knew so much about the synthetics industry and all those chemicals with fancy names which only a qualified chemicals engineer would know. “It is simple,” he would say. “I meet lots of people and read lots of literature. And I know exactly how to go from this to that point, and do what I want to do.”

Ambani rarely talked about money, though that was supposed to be his forte. He was known in the market as a financial wizard. He raised Rs.7,500 crore in all for his business, huge amount even for a man like Ambani.

The only person who comes close to Dhirubhai as a great achiever is surprisingly a Tata- not JRD but the great Jamsetji Tata, whom he resembles in many ways. Both started as yarn dealers and both spent their earlier years in a foreign country - Tata in Hong Kong and Dhirubhai in Aden and East Africa. But they did not follow the same business route. Tata started at the top with a steel plant in Bihar and a hydro-electric installation near Mumbai. Dhirubhai started at the bottom with a small weaving mill and ended up with an oil refinery. Tata did not live long enough to do what he wanted to do, but men after him have gone on with an engineering plant in Bihar which uses Tata Steel’s products. Dhirubhai is now a petroleum man, not a textile man, for textiles account for only 2 per cent of his total turnover of over Rs.60,000 crores.

But there the resemblance ends. Tatas took nearly a hundred years to achieve what they did. Dhirubhai, twice as big, took just about 40 years to do what he has done. The Ambanis are now nearly twice as big as Tatas and growing also at twice their rate. Where did Dhirubhai learn to think big? He did not learn anything from his business contemporaries because there was nothing to learn. I think he was born thinking big. It was second nature to him, otherwise how could a man in a 10 ft by 10 ft office hawking yarn end up as the owner of a huge petrochemical plant and an equally huge oil refinery? He was a restless soul who simply had to do what he did, because that was his compulsion. Everything else came afterwards, as it does when you know what you are going to do, though not how you are going to do it.If the first half of the 20th century belonged to Tatas, the second half belonged to Dhirubhai Ambani and if he lives long enough, the first half of the 21st century will also belong to him. Dhirubhai Ambani is indeed a man of two centuries!

Source: Free Press Journal

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Friends, Get Ready To Invest..

Few years back, I used to read spam emails about "India would become Super Power by 2050 and there will be something called "Harra Patta" (antonym of US Green Card and work permit for India).



I guess friends"Time has come". Not because that we have done something really big,smart or wonderful. But the world has screwed up "Big Time". Few countries have declared Bankruptcy and some are on the verge of doing it.

Thankfully and fortunately we are not export oriented countries like China, Japan, Taiwan or anyother Asian countries. An Indian economy has 80% internal usage and only 20%export based. Hence India is mostly dependent on its own production and consumption.

Another blessing in disguise is the CPM being part of the government did not allow Congress to do much so-called reforms and hence our banking system is not directly impacted by the financial turmoil across the globe.

Now NRI's all across the globe are looking for safe placements of their money, forget about the returns. If Indian banks can tap in that mammoth amount of quality FDI funds and that too is available for real long term tenure, we should be able to solve some of our liquidity problems.

Moreover, government needs to do more by dropping the CRR rate more, increase Pension, Insurance etc groups participation more in the stocks (remember this should be temporarily -otherwise we might end up like US today).

Indians on an average have savings of 35% of their income (for e.g. service class has 12% provident fund,around 10% in Insurance premium by them or by their companies and assuming another10% savings in their bank accounts).

One better thing is that our industries/companie s have not been performing like in US or other parts of the world. They were making profits till the last quarterly results.In the worst case their profits will be hit in this and few next quarters but they will not be locked down or will file for bankruptcy as in US.

Our Forex reserves are still over US $280 Billion.

We can re-build our Nation sooner andfaster than anyone else. It is not the time for Panic (or panic selling)!

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Quotes For Better Life

* The best way to succeed in life is to act on the advice we give to others…


* When was the last time you did something for the first time? The lesser this interval, the nearer you are to another success.


* For all your days prepare
And meet things ever alike
When you are the anvil, bear
When you are the hammer, strike


* No problem can withstand the power of sustained creative thought.


* There are no mistakes made in life, there are only lessons learnt.


* The greatest discovery of any generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitude.


* Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.


* Be the change you want to see in this world.


* Determine never to be idle. It is wonderful how much may be done if we are always doing.


* 20 years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didnt do than by the ones you did.


* Have confidence that if you have done a little thing well, you can do a bigger thing well too.


* Do what you know best, if you are a runner, run.. If you are a bell, ring.


* Worry is the misuse of imagination.


* Instead of thinking where you are, think about where you want to be. It takes 20 years of smart work to become an overnight success.


* When we put a limit on what we want to do, we also put a limit on what we can do.


* Either I will find a way or I will make one.


* Your day goes the way the corners of your mouth turn.


* We dont know who we are until we see what we can do.


* Dont go through life, grow through life.


* Its time to start living the life we have imagined.


* No matter what our age or condition is, there are still untapped potentials within us and new beauty waiting to be born.


* The only aging process is the erosion of dreams.


* Cherish your yesterdays, dream your tomorrows, but live your todays!


* Our self image and our habits go together. Change one and the other will be changed automatically.


* Make you life a mission, not an intermission.


* The world is what we think it is. If we can change our thoughts, we can change the world.


* What happens to a man is less significant than what happens within him.


* Nothing is good or bad, but it is our thinking which makes it so.


* Happiness is a present attitude, not a future condition.


* Believe that you have it, and you have it.


* The best way to succeed in life is to act on the advice we give to others…


* When was the last time you did something for the first time? The lesser this interval, the nearer you are to another success.


* For all your days prepare
And meet things ever alike
When you are the anvil, bear
When you are the hammer, strike


* No problem can withstand the power of sustained creative thought.


* There are no mistakes made in life, there are only lessons learnt.


* The greatest discovery of any generation is that a human being can alter his life by altering his attitude.


* Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.


* Be the change you want to see in this world.


* Determine never to be idle. It is wonderful how much may be done if we are always doing.


* 20 years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didnt do than by the ones you did.


* Have confidence that if you have done a little thing well, you can do a bigger thing well too.


* Do what you know best, if you are a runner, run.. If you are a bell, ring.


* Worry is the misuse of imagination.


* Instead of thinking where you are, think about where you want to be. It takes 20 years of smart work to become an overnight success.


* When we put a limit on what we want to do, we also put a limit on what we can do.


* Either I will find a way or I will make one.


* Your day goes the way the corners of your mouth turn.


* We dont know who we are until we see what we can do.


* Dont go through life, grow through life.


* Its time to start living the life we have imagined.


* No matter what our age or condition is, there are still untapped potentials within us and new beauty waiting to be born.


* The only aging process is the erosion of dreams.


* Cherish your yesterdays, dream your tomorrows, but live your todays!


* Our self image and our habits go together. Change one and the other will be changed automatically.


* Make you life a mission, not an intermission.


* The world is what we think it is. If we can change our thoughts, we can change the world.


* What happens to a man is less significant than what happens within him.


* Nothing is good or bad, but it is our thinking which makes it so.


* Happiness is a present attitude, not a future condition.


* Believe that you have it, and you have it.


* Art of life is a constant readjustment to our surroundings.


* Thoughts lead to purpose, purposes to action, actions form habits, habits decide our character and character fixes our destiny.


* Failure is a temporary change in direction to set you straight towards the path of success.


* Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.


* Tough times dont last, while tough people do.


* True success is overcoming the fear of being unsuccessful.


* Become addicted to constant and never-ending self improvement.


* How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world.


* Those who are lifting the world upward and onward are those who encourage more than criticize.


* Use whatever talents you possess. The woods would be very silent if no birds sang, except those that sing best.


* If you cannot find peace within yourself, you will never find it anywhere.


* They can conquer who believe they can.


* You will rise by lifting others.


* Your mind will give back exactly what you put into it.


* The fault finder will find faults even in a paradise.


* The measure of life is not its duration, but its donation.


* Being happy is one of the ways of being wise.


* The positive thinker sees the invisible, feels the intangible, and achieves the impossible.


* We can accomplish many more if we did not think of them as impossible.


* Do a little more each day than you think you possibly can.


* There is no such thing as an insignificant improvement.


* The man with confidence in himself, gains the confidence of others.


* You will only go as far as you can think you can go.


* He whose face gives no light shall never become a star.


* The biggest mistake of all is to avoid situations in which you might make a mistake.


* It takes courage to grow up and turn out to be who you really are.


* Genius is the product of enthusiasm.


* Confidence in nonsense is requirement for the creative process.


* Optimists do not wait for improvement, they achieve it.


* We must always change, renew, rejuvenate ourselves, else we harden and weaken.


* Use the word “impossible” with great caution.


* Never discourage anyone, who continually makes progress, no matter how slow.


* Two men look out through the same bars, one sees the mud and one the stars.


* Trust your hopes, not your fears.


* Whether a glass is half-full or half-empty depends on the attitude of the person looking at it.


* There is a better way to do everything you do, find it.


* Be a believer first, to become an achiever.


* Things don’t turn up in this world, unless somebody turns them up.


* Promote yourself without demoting others.


* A positive attitude is not a destination, its a way of life.


* Above all, challenge yourself. You may well surprise yourself at what strengths you have, what you can accomplish.


* When you are though changing, you are though.


* Never trouble another for what you can do for yourself.


* You begin to achieve when you begin to believe.


* It is not the situation that matters, but your reaction to the situation.


* A man who has to be convinced before he acts, is not a man of action.


* Things turn out the best for the people who make the best of the way things turn out.


* Our aspirations are our possibilities.


* The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of knowledge, but a lack of will.


* We cant direct the winds, but we can adjust the sails.


* If you really want to be happy, nobody can stop you.


* Life is a collection of experiments, the more experiments you make, the better.


* One cannot control the length of his life, but he can have something to say about its width and depth.


* Ability is what you are capable of doing. Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it.


* In the long run, a person hits at only what he aimed at.


* The way to overcome shyness is to become so wrapped up in something that you forget to be afraid.


* We are what we think we are. All that we are arises with our own thoughts. With our thoughts we make the world.


* Praise loudly, blame softly


* The poor man is not he who is without money, but he who is without a dream.


* There is only one corner if the universe you can be certain of improving, and thats your own self.


* Never put off till tomorrow what you can do today


* A problem is a chance for you to do your best


* The harder you fall, the higher you bounce


* Reputation is what people think you are…
Personality is what you seem to be….
Character is what you really are…..


* “Do not undermine your worth by comparing yourself with others. It is because we are different that each of us is special”.


* “Action may not always bring happiness,
But there is no happiness without action” -Benjamin Disraeli


* “Happiness is a choice that requires efforts at times”


* “The grand essentials of happiness are: something to do, something to love, and something to hope for” - Allan K. Chalmers


* “When one door of happiness closes, another opens; but often we look so long at the closed door that we do not see the one which has opened for us. ” - Helen Keller


* “Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have imagined.” - Henry David Thoreau


* “Don’t let life discourage you; everyone who got where he is had to begin where he was” - Richard L. Evans


* “We can try to avoid making choices by doing nothing, but even that is a decision” - Gary Collins


* “Today’s beautiful moments are Tomorrow’s beautiful memories.”


* “There are no shortcuts to any place worth going.”


* “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort, but where he stands at times of challenges and controversy” - Martin Luther King Jr.


* “Life is the first gift, Love is the second and Understanding is the third”


* “Don’t grieve that your roses have thorns. Rejoice instead that your thorns have roses!”


* “Success is how high you bounce when you hit bottom”


* “Its not how you fall, but how you pick yourself up again”


* “The heights by great men reached and kept were not achieved by sudden flight, but they, while their companions slept, were toiling upwards in the night”


* “Love is true when it comes from the heart, not from the mouth” - Aristotle


* “To have joy one must share it. Happiness was born twin.” - Lord Byron


* “Success is not the result of a spontaneous combustion. You must first set yourself on fire” - Fred Shero


* “Do not set your goals by what other people deem important. Only you know what is best for you…”


* “He who dares wins”


* Laugh and the world laughs with you; cry and you cry alone. - Horace


* “Do not be afraid to give up the good to go for the great” - Kenny Rogers


* “There is no scarcity of opportunity to make a living at what you love; there is always a scarcity of resolve to make it happen.”- Wayne Dyer


* “For every minute you are angry, you lose 60 seconds of happiness.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson


* “Liars need good memories”


* “Life is the greatest bargain; we get it for nothing”


* “Between the great things that we cannot do and the small things that we do not do, we end up doing nothing. Little drops of water make a mighty ocean”


* “You learn swimming by swimming only. There is no shortcut for success”


* “Do not let life slip through your fingers by living in the past or by living for the future. By living your life one day at a time, you live all the days of your life”


* “I cried for boots until I saw a man who had no legs”


* “As a rule, Man is a fool
When it’s hot he wants it cool
When it’s cool he wants it hot
Always wanting what is not”


* “Life is a unique exam of its kind in the sense that we face the exams first and learn lessons later.”


* “Treat a person as he is and he remains as he is, treat the same person as he could be and he will become what he should be.”


* “A reasonable person is the one who adapts himself to the world. An un-reasonable person is the one who keeps trying to adapt the rest of the world to suit himself.”


* “God helps only those who help themselves.”


* “When you lose, do not lose the lesson.”


* “I love you not for whom you are, but for who I am when I am by your side.”


* “No person deserves your tears, and the one who deserves won’t make you cry.”


* “The worst way to miss someone is to be seated by his/her side and to know that you’ll never have him/her.”


* “Never stop smiling, not even when you are sad, someone might fall in love with your smile.”


* “You may only be a person in this world, but for someone, you’re the world.”


* “Don’t spend time with someone who doesn’t care spending it with you.”


* “May be GOD wants you to meet many wrong people before you meet the right one, so when this happens, you’ll be thankful.”


* “Don’t struggle so much, best things happen when unexpected.”


* “Do not give up when there is still something to give. Nothing is really over until the moment you stop trying. It is a fragile thread that binds us to each other.”


* “When everything is coming your way, you’re in the wrong lane.”


* “Look deep, deep into nature and then you will understand everything better” - Albert Einstein


* “Man is the only animal who eats even when he is not hungry”


* “Don’t live to eat, eat to live”


* “When the going gets tough, the tough get the going”

Monday, September 22, 2008

Remember the following points when investing in the market:-

1)Sentiments change overnight as people are emotional.

2)If analysis really workd all the time market would have become very boring.They are interesting because we cannot predict human behaviour.

3)When you get information on a stock find out if market already knows it.Know your level ofinformation ladder.

4)Life is never fair.You may find incompetent people being highly successful.Dont feel bad,they are reaping the rewards of their past karma,lolz……

5)You cannot get investment opportunities everyday.5-6 of them in a quarter would be great.

6)Patience is always rewarded.The law of firm is applicable in walks of life.

7)Control your emotions.Do not follow the herd blindly.

8)You never miss the buss in the markets.If you have the money opportunities would always come.Preserve your money and don't forget "cash is the king".

9)Bear markets offer better investment opportunities than bull markets.

10)Avoid margin trading.You are only enriching your broker.Ask your margin trading friends how they are treated in the present market situation.

11)Derivatines are good hedging instruments.Unfortunately they are used as speculative instruments.They only enrich the intermediary at the expense of the investor.Avoid them.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

WHO WILL GO DOWN NEXT?

“Who is next?” That seems to be the biggest question and the reason for the extraordinary uncertainty prevailing in the world financial markets. Clearly the US Govt coming to the rescue of AIG did not help recoup the sentiments and the fear psychosis continued till the mid morning, after which the Asian markets and the Indian markets staged a recovery. For India, the Finance Minister coming out and assuring that India need not panic and going on record to state that Indian banks, especially the PSU banks had virtually no exposure to Lehman helped bolster the sentiments. Mr.Chidambaram stated that the Govt would be going ahead with its reform process and expected the Indian economy to grow at around 8%. Dalal Street felt assured and banking stocks were the first to recover.

Prior to this assurance from the Finance Minister, the moods remained despondent and all eyes were on developments unfolding in USA. The market has now learnt to read the signs and based on yesterday’s market data, it has emerged that Morgan Stanley was a major seller on Dalal Street. Morgan Stanley Mauritius Company, the company through which Morgan Stanley trades in India, executed block deals through P-Note transfers. It sold stocks worth Rs.871 crore. It sold 25.51 lakh shares of United Spirits at Rs.1,328 per share which was entirely purchased by Goldman Sachs. It sold 57.47 lakh shares of Pantaloon Retail at Rs 359 per share and this was purchased by Deutsche Securities Mauritius. It sold stocks of Educomp (5.32 lakh shares); Jindal saw (17.72 lakh shares); Subhash Projects (8.1 lakh shares) and all these were also purchased by Deutsche Securities Mauritius. It also sold Opto Circuits (7.53 lakh shares) to JF Eastern Smaller Companies Fund and Gujarat NRE Coke (18.31 lakh shares).

Morgan has totally invested Rs.11,200 crore in Indian stocks and this sell off yesterday, indicates that it has sold off around 8.5% of its total holdings. But the point to be noted here is that for every sale, there has been another FII buying, everyone is not just selling and running off. Doesn’t this mean that some well-to-do FIIs (a rare breed today!) are still favourably disposed towards India?

This is exactly what happened before Bear Stearns publicly announced that it was in irreversible trouble and ditto with Lehman too. These FIIs had started selling in bulk their holdings in the Indian markets, a few days before going bankrupt, trying to shore-up as much liquidity as possible. The name of Goldman Sachs also seems to keep popping up and keeping a close tab on the trades would indicate whether it too has started selling.

News on the street is that Morgan has sent out an SOS and is looking for a suitor. The one name which is coming in is of Wachovia, the fourth largest bank of USA.

Washington Mutual is also stated to be in trouble and JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co are expected to bid for parts of USA’s biggest savings and loan company. The perception on the street is that such deals which would help bail out troubled institutions would help revive some confidence back into the world markets.

The markets also started recovering on news that UK’s troubled bank – HBOS would be bailed out by Lloyds TBS for $22.2 billion. HBOS, based in Edinburgh is the largest provider of home loans in UK. There is some sense of belief that banks and institutions which could go phut, would be bought over and might not go the Lehman way. That is the only shred of optimism on the streets now. Plus of course the fact that all that is bad will happen in this week, we cannot go down any more. The big banks going bust would mean that smaller ones would also go down but this is probably the fag end of the entire sub-prime mortgage crisis.



From here, in a fortnight from now, Wall Street would never be the same and the entire world financial scene would have undergone a monumental change, liquidity pressure would be very high, and accessing capital would be a major issue and yet, with the markets being in such an oversold position, there would be smart short rallies once rebuilding starts.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Lehman brother holdings

Even before for impact of the write-off at Lehman had begun, the company, through its various Indian companies had started offloading its stocks. After all it wanted to garner as much funds as possible from all ends and given its exposure to India, it decided to offload its stakes here. This sell off was a clear indication was that the company was desperate to liquidate its assets and anything and everything worth anything was being sold.



Over the past few days, it has sold off its entire stake in Amtek Auto, Amtek India, Cranes Software International Fedders Lloyd Corporation, NIIT Ltd, Northgate Technologies, Mastek, Triveni Enineering and Prajay Engineers Syndicate. But what has been good news for India is that there have been buyers for every share it has sold. Its stake in Mastek and Triveni Engineering was purchased by Nalanda India Fund. It sold off its stake in Cranes Software, Fedders Lloyd and NIIT to Deutsche Securities Mauritius through block deals.



Though it managed to offload shares to the tune of almost Rs.175 crore over the past few days, it continues to hold stakes in some of the following companies:



Spice Communication – 1.33%

Spice Mobile – 4.41%

Edelweiss Capital – 1.80%

Dhampur Sugar – 4.32%

Emkay Global – 4.05%

Champagne Indane – 1.55%

Consolidated Construction Consortium – 1.36%

IOL Netcom – 3.60%

Tulip Telecom – 2.80%

Orbit Corporation – 4.82%

PSL Ltd – 2.30%

Pioneer Embroideries – 3.23%

Development Credit Bank – 3.04%

Anant Raj Industries – 1.82%

West Coast Paper Mills – 5.79%
IVRCL Infra – 1.20%

Saturday, September 13, 2008

ASSET BUBBLE -EXPLANATION

THIS IS THE STORY BEHIND US CRISIS

Here's a very interesting anecdote that describes how an "asset bubble"
builds up and what are its consequences.

Read it even if it confuses you a bit...things will be clear as you reach the end....


ANCEDOTE -

Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the
tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollar as there
were only two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.

1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B
and C each owned 1 dollar.

2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, A and C now each
own 1 dollar while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.

The net asset of the country = 3 dollar.

3) C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country and
land is non produceable asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he
borrowed 1 dollar from A and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the
land from B for 2 dollar.

A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.

B sold his land and got 2 dollar, so his net asset is 2 dollar.

C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollar but with his 1 dollar debt to A,
his net asset is 1 dollar.

The net asset of the country = 4 dollar.

4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted
selling it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollar
from B and and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollar. The payment is by
2 dollar cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to
C.
As a result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollar. But since
he owed B 2 dollar, his net asset is 1 dollar.

B loaned 2 dollar to A. So his net asset is 2 dollar.

C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollar.

The net asset of the country = 5 dollar. A bubble is building up.

(5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the
land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollar. The payment is by borrowing
2 dollar from C and cancellation of his 2 dollar loan to A.

As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net
asset is 2 dollar.

B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollar but since he has a debt of 2
dollar with C, his net Asset is 2 dollar.

C loaned 2 dollar to B, so his net asset is 2 dollar.

The net asset of the country = 6 dollar. Even though, the country has only
one piece of land and 2 Dollar in circulation.


(6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.

(7) One day an evil wind blowed. An evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey,
what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. There is
only 2 dollar in circulation, I think after all the land that B owns is
worth at most 1 dollar only."

A also thought the same.

(8) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore. In the end, A owns the 2 dollar
coins, his net asset is 2 dollar. B owed C 2 dollar and the land he owned
which he thought worth 4 dollar is now 1 dollar. His net asset become -1
dollar.

C has a loan of 2 dollar to B. But it is a bad debt. Although his net asset
is still 2 dollar, his Heart is palpitating.

The net asset of the country = 3 dollar again.

Who has stolen the 3 dollar from the country ?
Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land worth 4 dollar.
Actually, right before the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6
dollar in paper. his net asset is still 2 dollar, his heart is palpitating.

The net asset of the country = 3 dollar again.

(9) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2
dollar bad debt to B but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1
dollar now.

A owns the 2 coins, his net asset is 2 dollar. B is bankrupt, his net asset
is 0 dollar. ( B lost everything ) C got no choice but end up with a land
worth only 1 dollar (C lost one dollar) The net asset of the country = 3
dollar.

************ ****End of the story******* ********* ********* **

There is however a redistribution of wealth.

A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.

A few points worth noting -

(1) When a bubble is building up, the debt of individual in a country to one
another is also building up.

(2) This story of the island is a close system whereby there is no other
country and hence no foreign debt. The worth of the asset can only be
calculated using the island's own currency. Hence, there is no net loss.

(3) An overdamped system is assumed when the bubble burst, meaning the
land's value did not go down to below 1 dollar.

(4) When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows
having the land or extending loan to others are the loser. The asset could
shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.

(5) If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar or another piece
of land but refrain to take part in the game. At the end of the day, he will
neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land go up
and down like a see saw.

(6) When the bubble was in the growing phase, everybody made money.

(7) If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is
worthwhile to borrow money (like A ) and take part in the game. But you must
know when you should change everything back to cash.

(8) Instead of land, the above applies to stocks as well.

(9) The actual worth of land or stocks depend largely on psychology.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

RIL – RNRL GAS DISPUTE – BROTHERS-IN-ARMS

Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) K. G. Basin gas supply dispute with Reliance Natural Resources Ltd. (RNRL) being heard by a Division Bench in Bombay High Court, took a new turn, when one of the judge on the Bench, Justice Mr. J. N. Patel, asked, why the brothers in dispute could not approach their mother Mrs. Kokilaben Ambani to settle dispute, as the dispute over gas supply between the two corporate entities is one that might affect the economy.



In reply to this, Mr. Ram Jethamalani, counsel for RNRL said, Mr. Anil Ambani was ready to meet his elder brother “any time any place” in reply to which counsel for Mukesh Ambani controlled RIL, Mr. Milind Sathe, said the request would be conveyed to his client and that he would have to revert on the matter.



In a similar effort, Justice A V Mohta, while passing its 151 page order on 15th October 07, had asked RIL and RNRL to renegotiate the gas supply pact, as earlier agreement of 12th January 2006, which is being disputed now by RNRL in the court, being prejudicial to its interest and referred as Gas Supply Master Agreement (GSMA), was against the Ambani Family Settlement. Justice Mohta gave both parties, four months to renegotiate the deal and restrained RIL to enter into gas supply deal with a third party, till the period is over. Justice Mohta, also upheld the validity of the Ambani Family Settlement, that divided the Reliance Group between both the brothers.



However, both the brothers were unable to reach on any settlement and the matter came again to Bombay High Court in the middle of February 2008, for hearing and final settlement.



In last 15 days, lawyers of both the sides have argued the matter and RIL counsel has referred the family settlement of 18th June 2005 as a “ghost agreement” which is not binding on RIL. However, RNRL counsel has relied on “Doctrine of Identification” and said that if Mukesh Ambani knows the agreement, the entire company knows about it and this principle is well recognized by the Indian Courts as well. He even said that Mukesh Ambani should be criminally prosecuted for breach of trust and forgery and RIL should be asked to fork out $ 17 billion in cash, if it fails to honour its commitment to supply gas to RNRL. He has also agreed that RNRL would not be trading in gas, if it is received from RIL, inspite of their Dadri Power Plant is not ready for operations. Trading in gas was otherwise also prohibited in the settlement.



Strangely, the stand of RNRL seems to have softened on 21st August, in Bombay High Court where they have seen taking varying and contradictory stands in the matter. Firstly, RNRL asked that they should be permitted to trade in gas for three years and after that it can be used for its own power plants. Secondly, they said, Anil Ambani is prepared to sit alone with Mukesh Ambani and with Kokilaben Ambani alongwith Industry Experts or Judiciary to settle the matter. Thirdly, they have also stated that they are prepared to share the cost of gas exploration with RIL. Fourthly, they said that they could not get ready with its plants for lack of bankable gas sales purchase agreement with RIL. Lastly, the counsel of RNRL also objected strongly to the stand of government counsel that RIL – NTPC is not having a concluded agreement and said that government is taking side of RIL, instead of PSU NTPC. This is inspite of the fact that, RNRL is supposed to get 12 mmscmd of additional gas from RIL, if RIL – NTPC contract falls.



In the recent political development, it was felt that ADAG would be having an advantage in getting various matters settled in its favour. However, failure to join with MTN by R-Com has been seen as a big defeat of ADAG and now it is said that Samajwadi Party, which was perceived to be close to ADAG is not showing much eagerness to favour ADAG by displeasing the RIL group. This has probably lead to a change in stance of RNRL in the court, inspite of the fact that single judge bench has upheld the family settlement and has also restrained RIL from entering into third party gas supply agreements.



One may also conclude that the judgement of the Ambani’s mother seems to carry more weight than the judiciary and even the judiciary has to knock the door of motherhood to get a judgement in the matter for which they are unable to decide.



With the gas production expected from K G Basin by October 08, it has become utmost essential to settle the matter in the larger interests of the country including fertiliser and power plants and millions of households those who would be using the K G Basin Gas. Even, this would bring down our dependency on imported crude and gas and would improve our self-reliance on gas production. To remind, K G Basin is capable to produce equivalent quantity of gas now being produced in the entire country, which is about 90 mmscmd.



Matter has now been adjourned to 1st September by Bombay High Court but it looks difficult that by that time, both the brothers would have been to amicably settle this dispute. Maybe, intervention of mother and miracle of spiritual guru, who had earlier helped in settling matters, may help yet again this time.



But one may say that RNRL seems to be losing its legal grip on the matter, which is now going more in favour of RIL.

THE POLITICS OF POWER, NOT A “NANO” ISSUE

Dark clouds of gloom seem to be looming large over the state of West Bengal. Making use of a situation for political mileage is what politics is all about but putting the entire future of the state in jeopardy, tarnishing its reputation beyond repair, taking the progress of the state back by over four decades, would all this come under “political gain”?



Trinamool Congress chief, Mamta Banerjee, is using the Tata Motors Singur project to garner the votes which the Left in West Bengal is fast losing. By “fighting” for the cause of the farmers and the tribals, Mamta Banerjee is trying to regain her foothold back into power, securing a place for herself when the assembly elections come calling soon. For her, this is a great political card to play but for the state, it is a huge loss of face.



Ratan Tata has threatened to pull out of Singur if the situation continues as it does right now. And despite having invested around Rs.1,500 crore in the project, these are not empty threats. Ratan Tata has earlier proven that he means what he says- he pulled out of the airport project with Singapore Airlines in Bangalore and that also was a hi-profile project. Here the capital investment is substantial, yet how can employees go to work everyday under police protection?



The Tata’s are one of the most credible industrial houses of India. If they today pull out of the West Bengal, what would then be the fate of the others? If Tata does pull out, it would be a big blow to West Bengal. In the era of Subodh Banerjee, labour unrest and strikes had become so rampant that industries moved out of the state and since then, West Bengal is amongst the least favoured states for investment and not surprisingly, is also amongst the least “industrialized” states in India, with very high unemployment. Its agricultural output has gone up substantial yet that is not enough to provide employment and progress. Tata Motors Nano project was set to change this entire perception and the general feeling was if Tata’s can put up shop there, why can’t we? The completion of this project would have marked a return of West Bengal into being the industrial hub it was in the earlier days. But this entire episode has blighted the reputation of the state all over again and people are now questioning what made Ratan Tata decide on West Bengal at all?



The current government led by Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee has realised its folly and has been welcoming one and all with open arms. Industrialisation has been number one on its agenda. But this spearheading of Mamta Banerjee has left the Left looking “anti farmer” and it is on this that Mamta is hoping to win her elections.



Mamta might win but for the state and for entire India, this would be a big loss. The disparity in state wise growth will now only widen. There is no way in which Tata would be able to deliver the Nano as promised by Diwali. Tata captured the imagination of the entire world and globally, people had started thinking that India would soon become the automotive hub of the world. Yes, world over, there is an ongoing battle between industrialization and farmers land being used for this purpose. But here, right now, things have turned ugly.



The other states are now all urging Ratan Tata to relocate to their state. All have promised the red carpet treatment. Maharashtra was the first state to welcome Ratan Tata but then, even in Maharashtra, where will the 1,000 acres of land come from? If West Bengal has a Mamta Banerjee, we have a Narayan Rane too.



When politics seeps into industry, the signs are not healthy. And right now, it seems to have permeated like gangrene all over. The affected part would have to be amputated but hopefully, the politics is amputated and not the industry. Or else, death is certain.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Is India Ppoor, Who Says? Ask Swiss banks

MERA BHARAT MAHAN…
INDIA SHINING…
NO 1 IN CORRUPTION…

Source:merinews


Is India poor, who says? Ask Swiss banks
With personal account deposit bank of $1500 billion in foreign reserve which have been misappropriated, an amount 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt, one needs to rethink if India is a poor country?.

DISHONEST INDUSTRIALISTS, scandalous politicians and corrupt IAS, IRS, IPS officers have deposited in foreign banks in their illegal personal accounts a sum of about $ 1500 billion, which have been misappropriated by them. This amount is about 13 times larger than the country's foreign debt. With this amount 45 crore poor people can get Rs 1,00,000 each. This huge amount has been appropriated from the people of India by exploiting and betraying them.

Once this huge amount of black money and property comes back to India , the entire foreign debt can be repaid in 24 hours. After paying the entire foreign debt, we will have surplus amount, almost 12 times larger than the foreign debt. If this surplus amount is invested in earning interest, the amount of interest will be more than the annual budget of the Central government. So even if all the taxes are abolished, then also the Central government will be able to maintain the country very comfortably.

Some 80,000 people travel to Switzerland every year, of whom 25,000 travel very frequently. "Obviously, these people won't be tourists. They must be travelling there for some other reason," believes an official involved in tracking illegal money. And, clearly, he isn't referring to the commerce ministry bureaucrats who've been flitting in and out of Geneva ever since the World Trade Organisation (WTO) negotiations went into a tailspin!

Just read the following details and note how these dishonest industrialists, scandalous politicians, corrupt officers, cricketers, film actors, illegal sex trade and protected wildlife operators, to name just a few, sucked this country's wealth and prosperity. This may be the picture of deposits in Swiss banks only. What about other international banks?

Black money in Swiss banks -- Swiss Banking Association report, 2006 details bank deposits in the territory of Switzerland by nationals of following countries:

Top five

India---- $1,456 billion
Russia ---$ 470 billion
UK -------$390 billion
Ukraine - $100 billion
China -----$ 96 billion

Now do the maths - India with $1456 billion or $1.4 trillion has more money in Swiss banks than rest of the world combined. Public loot since 1947: Can we bring back our money? It is one of the biggest loots witnessed by mankind -- the loot of the Aam Aadmi (common man) since 1947, by his brethren occupying public office. It has been orchestrated by politicians, bureaucrats and some businessmen. The list is almost all-encompassing. No wonder, everyone in India loots with impunity and without any fear.

What is even more depressing in that this ill-gotten wealth of ours has been stashed away abroad into secret bank accounts located in some of the world's best known tax havens. And to that extent the Indian economy has been stripped of its wealth. Ordinary Indians may not be exactly aware of how such secret accounts operate and what are the rules and regulations that go on to govern such tax havens. However, one may well be aware of 'Swiss bank accounts,' the shorthand for murky dealings, secrecy and of course pilferage from developing countries into rich developed ones.

In fact, some finance experts and economists believe tax havens to be a conspiracy of the western world against the poor countries. By allowing the proliferation of tax havens in the twentieth century, the western world explicitly encourages the movement of scarce capital from the developing countries to the rich.

In March 2005, the Tax Justice Network (TJN) published a research finding demonstrating that $11.5 trillion of personal wealth was held offshore by rich individuals across the globe. The findings estimated that a large proportion of this wealth was managed from some 70 tax havens.

Further, augmenting these studies of TJN, Raymond Baker -- in his widely celebrated book titled 'Capitalism' s Achilles Heel: Dirty Money and How to Renew the Free Market System' -- estimates that at least $5 trillion have been shifted out of poorer countries to the West since the mid-1970.
It is further estimated by experts that one per cent of the world's population holds more than 57 per cent of total global wealth, routing it invariably through these tax havens. How much of this is from India is anybody's guess.

What is to be noted here is that most of the wealth of Indians parked in these tax havens is illegitimate money acquired through corrupt means. Naturally, the secrecy associated with the bank accounts in such places is central to the issue, not their low tax rates as the term 'tax havens' suggests. Remember Bofors and how India could not trace the ultimate beneficiary of those transactions because of the secrecy associated with these bank accounts? IS THERE ANY ONE WHO WOULD SAVE INDIA ?God... No No No, even he can't....... ....!!

Friday, August 1, 2008

3G TECHNOLOGY – THE RING TONE OF A REVOLUTION

The mobile phone is all set to become the most important gadget, if it has not already become so! If you thought that sending SMSes and listening to music on the mobile or checking your email on the Blackberry meant that you had “arrived” in life, just wait till the third generation technology or better known as the 3G technology takes over India soon.



Today afternoon, the telecom minister, Mr.A. Raja announced the most eagerly awaited norms of 3G and what emerged clearly is that MTNL would be the biggest gainer.



Over the next few days, there would be a lot of talk about this 3G technology and hence, to understand what people are talking about and understand where India’s mobile telephony is leaping ahead, it is first important to understand what this 3G is all about. So let’s get the basics clear.



What is 3G?

3G is the third generation of mobile phone standards and technology, superseding 2G and preceding 4G. It will enable network operators to offer a wider range of more advanced services like wide-area wireless voice telephone, video calls and broadband data in a mobile environment. Right now, the mobile phones we use help us make and receive calls, send SMSes and MMSes, there is internet too but at a snails pace, ditto for music downloads. This is because, the current mobiles work on a very narrow bandwidth and 3G would mean a very high bandwidth, giving us very high wireless speeds. Its like this – when the pipe is small, water will come out in a trickle but when suddenly the diameter of the pipe is increased from 10mm to 50mm, can you imagine how the water will rush out? That in short is what 3G would mean.



What prevented us from using 3G till now?

The usage of 3G needs a very high bandwidth and that spectrum needed to be freed from the defence sector. Our defence sector has agreed to give more allocation and hence based in that assurance, we can now go ahead with 3G.



Which are the other countries which use 3G?

Japan was the first to adapt 3G and this was followed by South Korea. It is today available in a number of countries like Italy, UK, Australia, Austria, Singapore, Canada and US among others. It accounts for close to 7% of mobile service population. Countries such as Turkey, China, Indonesia, have not awarded 3G licenses and customers await 3G services. China has been delaying its decisions on 3G for many years, partly hoping to have the Chinese 3G standard, TD-SCDMA, to mature for commercial production. So here too, we may be able to trudge much ahead of China!



How will 3G change things for us?

It will revolutionise the way we use the mobile phones. Once we get onto the 3G, we will be able to transmit text, digitised voice, video, and multimedia data at rates up to 2Mbps in a fixed or stationary wireless environment, and 384kbps in a mobile environment. You can watch movies directly from the internet on your mobile and get it connected to your TV. Video conferencing will now be possible on the mobile phone and IPTV would become as easy as talking on the phone.



All cannot be roses and peaches. What are the thorns which one can encounter in 3G implementation?

For India, implementation is in itself a big challenge. For companies, implementing this technology would entail a huge amount of capital expenses. Even in the developed countries, where the technology has been implemented, many telecom companies are sitting on large amounts of debt, making it a big challenge to build the necessary infrastructure for 3G. There would be other challenges like expensive input fees for the 3G service licenses.

For the man on the street, 3G will be an expensive service. More importantly, the mobile phone which we use today, is based on 2G technology and if we decide to upgrade to 3G, we may have to buy a new mobile phone too. Don’t be surprised to see new launches of mobile phones over the next few months, touting 3G technology. Also, coverage could be spotty as it is still a new service. Also the power usage is also very high, so when you buy your new 3G phone, be sure to check on the battery life and re-chargeability.





NEW NORMS FOR 3G

Ø Government would invite global bids for the 3G spectrum



Ø Five operators will be allotted the 3G spectrum as of now and five more operators are expected to be allotted the spectrum on a later date.



Ø BSNL, MTNL would be allotted one slot of the 3G spectrum today.



Ø Currently 60 Mhz of the 3G spectrum is available and of the five, three slots of the 3G spectrum would be allotted to CDMA players.



Ø Only 2-3 operators would get the 3G spectrum in Mumbai and Delhi.



Ø Reserve price for Pan India 3G Auctions would be Rs 2,020 crore. The price for a 25 Mhz block of spectrum for Mumbai and Delhi and category-A shall be Rs 160 crore and for Kolkata and category-B Rs 80 crore and for category-C Rs 30 crore.



Ø Rollout obligation of the 3G would be the same as that of the 2G spectrum.



Ø 3G-spectrum fee is to be 1% of the adjusted gross revenue from the second year and there would be no annual spectrum fee for the 3G auction in the first year.



Ø Auctions to be completed in two months. Bid winner could get 20 Mhz of spectrum for broadband.



Ø Guidelines for Mobile Number Portability also released and this proposes dividing the country into two zones for implementing the scheme that is prevalent in most mature telecom markets.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Nuclear Agreement between India - USA

Nuclear Agreement between India - USA

Here follows the commercial & technical aspects relating to this Agreement

What is 123 Agreement?

This is called 123 Agreement because this comes under USA's Atomic Power Act Section 123.
Let's see how India's (Indians?) Sovereinty & Independence are pledged..

(1) After this Agreement USA will supply all fuel, machinery / equipment & technology to India for producing Nuclear Power.

(2) India currently produces power from 22 Nuclear Power Plants. It's a top secret as of now that from where which is produced, how much is produced, where it is
supplied, what research is being done with that, etc. But... if we sign this Agreement, we have to disclose these secrets and also agree to 14 of our Nuclear Power Plants to be under the scanner of International Atomic Power Organisation.

(3) The fuel utilised to produce Atomic Power can be recycled for reuse and this recycling plant will also be under the direct supervision of IAPO.

If India does nuclear test, this agreement gets cancelled. But not so easy!!

* USA will take back all the machinery / equipments / technology supplied to India thus far.

* Those 14 plants will continue to be under scanner irrespective of the status of the agreement.

* On the other hand, if any of the commitments given by USA is breached by them, then there is no clause for cancelling this agreement.

The agreement is apparently like this... USA can either hug India or slap India. India will not ask why are we hugged or why are we slapped.
On the other hand, India cannot hug or slap USA for breach of agreement.

This is only in its capsule form so that it is easy to read and digest.

Subject: India Pledged.... Part 2

Requirement of Power

The most important requirement for India's Economic Growth in the coming years will be the power & infrastructure. The argument put forth favouring the 123 Agreement says that we need Nuclear Power Production to be increased to meet the demand.

Power Production in India

Presently following are the figures:

Thermal Power 66%

Hydel Power 26%

Solar & Wind Power 5% - Presently Rs.600 Crores are spent for producing this power.

Nuclear Power 3% - If this is to be increased to 6%, it requires additional Rs.50,000 Crores.

Naturally it will be wise to increase other 3 modes of power production rather than the expensive & dangerous Nuclear Power.

Why dangerous?
Whether power is produced or Bomb is produced, using Atomic power without spoiling the infrastructure and without allowing the radiation is always under threat. Moreover preserving the wastes coming out of Atomic Power Plants is expensive & unsafe. There was an accident in Three Miles Island in USA. To close this plant nearly USD 200 Crores spent with tons & tons of concrete but yet to be fully closed. In an another accident at Soviet Union's Serbia Plant, even the next generation children are affected due to the radiation. It will be very very expensive to defuse & close down an Atomic Power Plant than its construction cost.

URANIUM

We used to import Uranium from various other countries. After the Pokhran Test, we are not getting it. To augment the supply, we need to sign the 123 Agreement to get Uranium from USA. But we will have to declare to USA from which power plant India takes raw material for producing Atom Bomb. Other study reveals that Uranium is available in India in plenty. Only hurdle is the acquisition of land. To produce Atomic Power & Bomb in the next 40 years, the requirement of Uranium is 25,000 MT whereas the availability is 78,000 MT across India.

PLUTONIUM

Presently 35% of Plutonium is used to produce Atomic Bombs. After signing the Agreement, we will be allowed to use only 10%. Signing the agreement will enable them to restrict the usage of our natural resources!! That is though you are capable of cooking & eating 10 idlis as your breakfast, you are allowed only 3 idlis henceforth.

THORIUM

As told by Dr.APJ Abdul Kalam, we have abundant Thorium. In fact we are the 2nd largest producer of Thorium next only to Australia. India has to explore this further for producing power. For your information, in South India - particularly around Kanyakumari, the availability of Thorium is abundant.

INDIA-IRAN-CHINA

USA does not like the amicable relationship between India-Iran and also India-China. If India-China relationship gets stronger, then both these can rule the Eastern Part of the Globe, which USA wants to break as per the old divide & rule.

By signing this agreement, USA wants India to depend on it for producing power which is going to be a crucial factor in future. There is a talk of bringing Natural Gas from Iran to India with a big pipeline project. USA doesn't like this proposal.


France

France has got 56 Nuclear Power stations producing 73% of the country's total power requirement. They are catching up the problem of eliminating the wastes / emissions from out of those plants at the same time increase the power production capacity. Government of France is now thinking how to reduce the power consumption in the country.

Conclusion

In view of the above danger, rather than signing the agreement and pledging India to USA, it will be prudent to increase the Solar & Wind Energy and more importantly Hyder Power Production can be increased by linking all rivers across India and by constructing DAMS.

The whole process of this Agreement started in the year 2005 when Manmohan visited USA. In a span of just 2 years a major decision of signing this agreement has taken place with political motive. On the contrary, neither this Government nor any other earlier Central Government could not amend the Constitution thereby nationalise the rivers across the country thereby effectively utilise the water resources for both Agriculture purpose and producing Hydel Power. What an irony?!!

Now lets decide whether the Nuclear Deal is good or bad.. Wait.. Who are we to decide?!!